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ES #F Different scenarios

The ES continuous contract made its biggest up move since 1 March 2017. The Smart money bar at the top and formation of Elliott wave 4 suggests this must be a buying climax and prices will move sideways to downwards to the eventual target of around 2301 (Elliott wave 5 target). The second scenario is that the current up wave in progress, which drew 3.01 million contracts and moved 42.75 points, is a bullish change in behaviour, with some more upward progress to come. No clear evidence or signals exists at the moment to see which scenario will eventually play out. Expect some choppy sideways action in the process. A close above 2360 will favour the second scenario and a close below 2317.75 will favour the first.Based on the daily chart and Elliott wave principals the first scenario is most likely. Prices should find resistance in the 2360.50 to 2365.50 area which can lead to a possible reversal.


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