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2017-04-15
ES #F Daily chart outlook: Low volume rallies on daily chart, signs of what can be expected in the near future?


Since the high on March the 1st 2017, four low volume rallies occurred. The rally that ended on March 16th 2017 moved 34.75 points (the lowest up wave move since September the 8th 2016), then the up wave that ended on March the 31st 2017 moved 49 points, then the up wave that ended on April the 5th 2017 moved 35 points, and finally the up move that ended on April the 10th 2017 moved 26.50 points (the lowest up move since August the 29th 2016). This diminishing up waves (which is also clearly visible on the Cumulative volume oscillator) will tell a bearish story if there is follow through in selling wave volume. The volume on the last down wave in progress, exceeds the previous two down waves so far and should it increase to more than 11.65 million (the down wave volume on wave ended March the 28th 2017), it very well may be a bearish change in behaviour. The Relative strength indicator shown weakness since March the 22th 2017 with no current signs of any strengthening. The Multi Time Frame Trigger is still firing with volatility to the down side. The aggressive buying (positive delta volume) on the last bar on April the 13th 2017 can be profit taking, but with more buying pressure and follow through to the upside a pullback can be expected to around the 2348 to 2355 area. A close above 2365.50 will change the picture to more bullish than bearish. Our line in the sand is the low of the high range Smart money down bar on March the 22nd 2017 of 2332.25. Should prices stay below this level some significant weakness can be expected. It is interesting that no closes above the high of 2365.50 OR below the low of 2332.25 of the Smart money bar on March the 22nd 2017 occurred, except for the last close at 2327.50. With the 3 and a half month volume POC at 2275 and the LVA at 2267, it will be our long term down side targets if prices stay below 2332.25 over the longer term. Bear in mind the significant geopolitical influences that are present at the moment and can have a significant influence on markets.

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