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Assessments / Blog


2018-04-24
ES #F Sideways what next?


The daily chart above shows our SUPPLY and DEMAND Dashboard and BXB (Bar by Bar) Signals.

Readings are based on Supply and Demand and Volume obtained from raw internal data of the total market. It is updated in real time during regular trading sessions and does NOT take into account any price indicators or mathematical formulas using price. We do however show the cumulative price change for the trading session and in some instances assess price movement’s relationship to Supply and Demand. It is therefore fair to say that the readings and signals are independent from other popular price indicators and others shown on the chart. The readings are an independent assessment of the one and only measureable fundamental market mover: SUPPLY and DEMAND. It does not matter if price is influenced by a geopolitical event, seasonality, fundamental economic data releases or sentiment driven news, etc. It all reflects in Supply and Demand, leaving “footprints” by the “Big Boys” or “Smart Money”.

 In our April 21th assessment we cautioned about price bouncing from the Regression Mean, and that is what happened Yesterday. Price also did not close below Fridays low.

Supply only just outnumbered Demand during Yesterday’s trading session, and the market closed down 0.50 points. The market had 2 opportunities to go lower from the last swing high, but could not manage to close below the Mean (Regression).

Dashboard:

The Supply and Demand Reading (1st row) was -0.4 Yesterday which indicates Supply was more than Demand by a very small margin.

Supply and Demand Direction (3nd row) was to the upside but not strong (blue up triangle), indicating no substantial strength. Ideally we want to see a lime coloured triangle for substantial strength.

Average Supply and Demand Volatility (4th row) is above 100% and is still bearish, but weakened. The change in Volatility from the previous day was negative (bearish).

BXB Signals:

On the signals board no signal was present.

Daily Volatility direction (2nd row) was up (blue up triangle).

The NY Stock market traded up for the day (blue up triangle in 3rd row).

50% of stocks (4th row) traded above there VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) compared to the previous day’s 44%.

In short we saw sideways price action with no real dominance by either Supply or Demand Yesterday and price went down 0.50 points. Price did not close below the Mean and short term direction (blue up triangles on BXB) are indicating an upward move is possible. We expect the 2718.50 level to be tested and if broken the 2817.50 level can come into play.

Caution:

If Yesterday’s low at 2657.25 is taken out (a bar close below this level) some more bearish price action can follow.

Intraday

There were 2 opportunities to go short, during the trading session Yesterday on the 26-minute chart below:

Marked with arrows on chart. Strategy is simple, enter when 2 Dashboards align and exit when two opposite triangles on BXB Dashboard appears. Red arrows drawn on chart show entries (short) and green arrows show exits.

The last sub window on the chart shows the Greed / Fear sentiment measurements of Supply and Demand. Similar to an Oversold situation (but without using price related formulas). White lines were drawn on the chart where Greed/Fear reached a peak (according to Supply / Demand readings) and then reversed.

RISK DISCLOSURE:

The information delivered here is for educational purposes only and is not intended to be a recommendation to purchase or sell any of the stocks, futures or other securities referenced. All references are for illustrative purposes only and are not considered endorsed or recommended for purchase or sale by MC Trading.

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