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Assessments / Blog


2018-04-26
ES #F Rebound


The daily chart above shows our SUPPLY and DEMAND Dashboard and BXB (Bar by Bar) Signals.

Readings are based on Supply and Demand and Volume obtained from raw internal data of the total market. It is updated in real time during regular trading sessions and does NOT take into account any price indicators or mathematical formulas using price. We do however show the cumulative price change for the trading session and in some instances assess price movement’s relationship to Supply and Demand. It is therefore fair to say that the readings and signals are independent from other popular price indicators and others shown on the chart. The readings are an independent assessment of the one and only measureable fundamental market mover: SUPPLY and DEMAND. It does not matter if price is influenced by a geopolitical event, seasonality, fundamental economic data releases or sentiment driven news, etc. It all reflects in Supply and Demand, leaving “footprints” by the “Big Boys” or “Smart Money”.

 The ES opened at 2632.25 and traded down to a low of 2611.25, a 21-point move down in the 1st 26-minutes of Yesterday’s trading session. Price then rebounded and closed above the Mean (Regression).

Once the peak of the Fear curve was in, it was basically one-way traffic upwards and closed up 9.25 points for the trading session.

Dashboard:

The Supply and Demand Reading (1st row) was -0.9 Yesterday which indicates Supply was more than Demand, but no dominance by Supply.

Supply and Demand Direction (3nd row) was strongly to the downside (red down triangle), indicating substantial strength.

Average Supply and Demand Volatility (4th row) is above 100% and is still bearish, but weakened. The change in average Volatility from the previous day was positive 27 (bullish).

BXB Signals:

On the signals board we had an unbalanced market signal (brown block in the 1st row). This is an anomaly in the market when we have Supply, but price went up, or vice versa.

Daily Volatility direction (2nd row) was up (blue up triangle).

The NY Stock market traded Up for the day (blue up triangle in 3rd row).

63% of stocks (4th row) traded above there VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) compared to the previous day’s 37%, a positive sign for the markets.

In short we saw Supply dominating in the first 26-minutes until a Fear peak was reached and then price rebounded to close 9.25-points higher, above the Mean. Readings and signals are mixed and today’s move will probably give more clues as to where the ES is heading next. Overhead resistance comes in at 2688.50 and 2718.50 (the last swing high). It looks like we are heading North again.

 Caution:

Wait for the readings and signals to all align and confirm with Buying / Selling pressure to reduce trading risk in these volatile conditions. If the market trade down in the short to medium term, the line in the sand for the bulls will be the February 9th low at 2529. A close below this level will Technically damage the bull market.

Intraday

There were 2 opportunities one short and one long, during the trading session Yesterday on the 26-minute chart below:

Strategy is simple, enter when 2 Dashboards align and exit when two opposite triangles on BXB Dashboard appears. First entry was short (magenta down arrow) and the second entry was long (blue up arrow) and worked well! (Entries and exits marked with magenta and blue arrows on the chart).

The last sub window on the chart shows the Greed / Fear sentiment measurements of Supply and Demand. Similar to an Oversold / Overbought situation (but without using price related formulas). White lines were drawn on the chart where Greed / Fear reached a peak (according to Supply / Demand readings) and then reversed.

RISK DISCLOSURE:

The information delivered here is for educational purposes only and is not intended to be a recommendation to purchase or sell any of the stocks, futures or other securities referenced. All references are for illustrative purposes only and are not considered endorsed or recommended for purchase or sale by MC Trading.

Trading Forex, Stocks and Options, Futures and any Cryptocurrency, Commodity or ETF contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and no representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. MCTrading has taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the information contained herein and on this website, however MCTrading does not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or from an inability to access such information or any delay in or failure of the transmission or receipt of any instruction or notification in connection therewith.


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