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Newsletter / Blog


2018-04-27
ES #F Demand all the way


The daily chart above shows our SUPPLY and DEMAND Dashboard and BXB (Bar by Bar) Signals.

Readings are based on Supply and Demand and Volume obtained from raw internal data of the total market. It is updated in real time during regular trading sessions and does NOT take into account any price indicators or mathematical formulas using price. We do however show the cumulative price change for the trading session and in some instances assess price movement’s relationship to Supply and Demand. It is therefore fair to say that the readings and signals are independent from other popular price indicators and others shown on the chart. The readings are an independent assessment of the one and only measureable fundamental market mover: SUPPLY and DEMAND. It does not matter if price is influenced by a geopolitical event, seasonality, fundamental economic data releases or sentiment driven news, etc. It all reflects in Supply and Demand, leaving “footprints” by the “Big Boys” or “Smart Money”.

 Our summary for the 26th stipulated “It looks like we are heading North again” and so we did. The ES opened at 2648.25 and traded up to a high of 2677.50 and closing on the high at 2674.50, a 26.25-point move up.  Price has moved away from the Mean (Regression).

Demand dominated the trading session.

Dashboard:

The Supply and Demand Reading (1st row) was 11.6 Yesterday which indicates Demand was dominating.

Supply and Demand Direction (3nd row) was strongly to the upside (lime up triangle), indicating substantial strength.

Average Supply and Demand Volatility (4th row) went below 100% and is bullish. The change in average Volatility from the previous day was positive 24 (bullish) shown on the right of Sup/Dem Dashboard.

BXB Signals:

No signal on the signals board (1st row). The previous day we had an “unbalanced warning”. This was an anomaly in the market when we have Supply, but price went up, or vice versa. Price often change direction after these signals, and it did.

Daily Volatility direction (2nd row) was up (blue up triangle). The change in daily Volatility from the previous day was positive 53 (bullish) shown on the right of BXB Dashboard.

The NY Stock market traded Down for the day (maroon down triangle in 3rd row).

59% of stocks (4th row) traded above there VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) compared to the previous day’s 63%, a slight negative sign for the markets.

In short we saw Demand dominating for the whole trading session and price moved away from the Mean. Readings and signals were mostly bullish Yesterday and today’s move will probably be higher if readings and signals stay bullish. Overhead resistance comes in at 2688.50 and 2718.50 (the last swing high).

 Caution:

We have moved into Buying pressure territory, but only just. For long entries the Simplified Volume Oscillator must stay in Buying territory. Earnings season can lead to volatile conditions, so be cautious. If the market trade down in the short to medium term, the line in the sand for the bulls will be the February 9th low at 2529. A close below this level will Technically damage the bull market.

Intraday

There were 2 long opportunities during the trading session Yesterday on the 26-minute chart below:

Strategy is simple, enter when 2 Dashboards align and exit when two opposite triangles on BXB Dashboard appears. First entry was long (blue up arrow) and the second entry was long (blue up arrow) and worked well! (Entries marked with blue arrows and exits marked with magenta arrows on the chart). The last sub window on the chart shows the Greed / Fear sentiment measurements of Supply and Demand. Similar to an Oversold / Overbought situation (but without using price related formulas).

RISK DISCLOSURE:

The information delivered here is for educational purposes only and is not intended to be a recommendation to purchase or sell any of the stocks, futures or other securities referenced. All references are for illustrative purposes only and are not considered endorsed or recommended for purchase or sale by MC Trading.

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