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ES #F Supply dominating
The daily chart above shows our SUPPLY and DEMAND Dashboard and BXB (Bar by Bar) Signals.
Readings are based on Supply and Demand and Volume obtained from raw internal data of the total market. It is updated in real time during regular trading sessions and does NOT take into account any price indicators or mathematical formulas using price. We do however show the cumulative price change for the trading session and in some instances assess price movement’s relationship to Supply and Demand. It is therefore fair to say that the readings and signals are independent from other popular price indicators and others shown on the chart. The readings are an independent assessment of the one and only measureable fundamental market mover: SUPPLY and DEMAND. It does not matter if price is influenced by a geopolitical event, seasonality, fundamental economic data releases or sentiment driven news, etc. It all reflects in Supply and Demand, leaving “footprints” by the “Big Boys” or “Smart Money”.
The bullishness was short lived and price closed down 24.50-points Yesterday. Price has moved towards the Mean (Regression) again.
Supply dominated Yesterday’s trading session and if price take out the Mean at 2635.50, some more weakness can follow. The current up wave volume (still in progress) is the lowest (4.3m) since December the 4th and should price move down further to complete the upswing, it will signal No demand.
The Supply and Demand Reading (1st row) was -2.3 Yesterday which indicates Supply was dominating.
Supply and Demand Direction (3nd row) was to the downside (maroon down triangle), indicating downwards direction, but no substantial strength.
Average Supply and Demand Volatility (4th row) is still below 100% and is bullish by a small margin. The change in average Volatility from the previous day was negative -16 (bearish) as shown on the right of Sup/Dem Dashboard.
We have an alignment down signal on the signals board (1st row).
Daily Volatility direction (2nd row) was Down (maroon down triangle). The change in daily Volatility from the previous day was negative -105 (bearish) shown on the right of BXB Dashboard.
The NY Stock market traded Down for the day (maroon down triangle in 3rd row).
31% of stocks (4th row) traded above there VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) compared to the previous day’s 55%, a negative sign for the markets.
In short we saw Supply dominating for the whole trading session Yesterday and price moved towards the Mean again. Readings and signals were mostly bearish Yesterday and today’s move will probably be lower. If the price close below the Mean, more weakness is likely to follow. Resistance comes in at 2611.25 and 2584.50 to the down side.
We are still in Buying pressure territory, but only just. For short entries the Simplified Volume Oscillator must enter the Selling pressure territory. Earnings season can lead to volatile conditions, so be cautious. If the market trade down in the short to medium term, the line in the sand for the bulls will be the February 9th low at 2529. A close below this level will Technically damage the bull market.
There were 2 short opportunities during the trading session Yesterday on the 26-minute chart below:
Strategy is simple, enter when 2 Dashboards align and exit when two opposite triangles on BXB Dashboard appears. First entry was short (red down arrow) and the second entry was also short (red down arrow) and worked well! (Exits marked with green arrows on the chart). The last sub window on the chart shows the Greed / Fear sentiment measurements of Supply and Demand. Similar to an Oversold / Overboughtsituation (but without using price related formulas).
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