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2018-06-20
ES #F Weakness, Supply, Strong close?


The daily chart above shows our SUPPLY and DEMAND Dashboard and BXB (Bar by Bar) Signals using data from the NYSE.

Click here for example of reversal trade taken in Feeder Cattle that can be found on this page.

Yesterday’s trading followed the same pattern as the last two trading days (initial weakness with a stronger close). Overnight weakness drove price down to a low of 2735.75.

Yesterday the ES lost 15-points to close at 2764.75 (a whisker above Yesterday’s low) after an initial drop to a low of 2735.75. Supply dominated the day, but the overall NYSE market was up for the trading day. The tit-for-tat tariffs between the USA and China is clearly weighing in on the markets as fears that an escalating trade dispute could be detrimental for global markets, probably led to a flight to safer assets.

Supply is still dominating on a 3-day basis, but weakened. Interesting to see that Demand is now dominating the weekly bar, although by a whisker as shown on the charts below. We get the impression that today’s trading would be important for the near term direction in the S&P index futures.

If Demand dominates today’s trading session, we will probably see a close above the 2779.00 level.

NYSE Daily Signals June the 19th

Dashboard:

The Supply and Demand Reading (1st row) came it -2.3 with Supply dominating the trading session.

Supply and Demand Direction (3nd row) was to the downside (maroon down triangle), indicating downwards direction, with No substantial strength.

Average Supply and Demand Volatility (4th row) is above 100% which is a bearish sign. The change in average Volatility from the previous day was negative 14% (Supply) as shown on the right of Sup/Dem Dashboard.

BXB Signals:

We had a sell signal on the signals board (1st row).

Daily Volatility direction (2nd row) was Down (maroon down triangle). The change in daily Volatility from the previous day was negative 51% (Supply) shown on the right of BXB Dashboard.

The overall NY Stock market traded Higher for the day (blue up triangle in 3rd row).

68% of stocks (4th row) traded above there VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) compared to the previous day’s 63%, a positive sign for the markets.

We are still in Buying territory on the weekly and 3-day charts. Demand overcame supply Yesterday on the weekly chart, but only just. A close below the regression mean at 2727.50 can be final line in the sand for the Bulls in the near term.

We are neutral to bullish as to the near-term direction, and still bullish on the longer term. We need to break the 2779.00 level to spark more demand again for the near term to get bullish again.

Caution:

The 3-Day chart shows Supply is still dominating and still in selling pressure territory on the daily-chart. If we do not have an up day today, more weakness for the near term can follow.

RISK DISCLOSURE:

The information delivered here is for educational purposes only and is not intended to be a recommendation to purchase or sell any of the stocks, futures or other securities referenced. All references are for illustrative purposes only and are not considered endorsed or recommended for purchase or sale by MC Trading.

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