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Assessments / Blog


2018-07-04
ES #F Supply is weakening


The 3-day and daily chart above shows our SUPPLY and DEMAND Dashboard and BXB (Bar by Bar) Signals using Supply and Demand data calculated for the S&P 500 mini futures contract.

Buying pressure is still present on the daily chart but price has moved up and down between 2748.00 and 2693.25 for the past 6 days. Supply on the 3-day and daily chart is weakening. The price action looks a lot like accumulation, with a spring on the 28th of June and a test on the 2nd of July.

So far the 2700.50 level is holding and we did not have a bar close below this level. A bar close above 2748.00 will spark more Demand.

On the current daily bar volatility dropped below 100% which is a bullish sign.

NYSE Daily Signals July the 4th   

Dashboard:

The Supply and Demand Reading (1st row) came in at -0.2 with Supply dominating, but weakening.

Supply and Demand Direction (3nd row) was to the downside (maroon down triangle), indicating downwards direction.

Average Supply and Demand Volatility (4th row) was below 100% which is bullish, but only just. The change in average Volatility from the previous day was positive 11% (Up) as shown on the right of Sup/Dem Dashboard.

BXB Signals:

We have an unbalanced warning signal on the signals board (1st row).

Daily Volatility direction (2nd row) is Down (maroon down triangle). The change in daily Volatility from the previous day was positive 9% (Up) shown on the right of BXB Dashboard.

The average volatility is pointing Up (blue up triangle in 3rd row).

The Supply and Demand reading is still negative, indicating supply is still dominating but is weakening.

For the brave it is time to accumulate. We expect a quick and sudden move soon and the 2796.00 level to be tested, maybe as soon as this week.

Caution:

Solid demand is needed to get the Bulls on track again and the first step will be a close above 2748. A bar close below 2700.50 will lead to more weakness and the next substantial level of resistance below should be in the 2675 area.

Link to Facebook Group where these assessments are also posted regularly.

Click here for example of reversal trade taken in Feeder Cattle that can be found on this page.

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