Assessments / Blog

ES #F Weak Supply with Selling pressure, but bullish Volatility

The daily chart of the S&P 500 mini futures contract above, shows our SUPPLY and DEMAND Dashboard and BXB (Bar by Bar) Signals using data from the NYSE.


In our previous assessment we cautioned: “Keep an eye on more Supply continuing Today as signals are mostly bearish. A break of the 2790.00 level could see a sell off to the 2765.00 level, if Demand does not show up”. Demand dominated the 17th and 18th, but Yesterday Supply dominated by a whisker. Selling pressure is developing, but Volatility decreased to 81%, which is a bullish sign and we have a balanced market warning signal. This illustrate that the market is unsure as to which direction to take next.

If the 2789.25 level does not hold and close below this level, we can expect a deeper pullback Today. If the market stays above 2789.25 we should see the near term uptrend continuing soon.

NYSE Daily Signals July the 19th    


The Supply and Demand Reading (1st row) came in at -0.5 with Supply dominating the trading session by a whisker.

Supply and Demand Direction (3nd row) was to the downside (maroon down triangle), indicating downwards direction, with no substantial strength.

Average Supply and Demand Volatility (4th row) was at 81% which is bullish. The change in average Volatility from the previous day was positive 16% (Up) as shown on the right of Sup/Dem Dashboard.

BXB Signals:

We had a balanced market warning signal on the signals board (1st row).

Daily Volatility direction (2nd row) was Down (maroon down triangle). The change in daily Volatility from the previous day was negative -5% (Down) shown on the right of BXB Dashboard.

The overall NY Stock market traded Lower for the day (maroon down triangle in 3rd row).

58% of stocks (4th row) traded above there VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) compared to the previous day’s 62%, a negative sign for the markets, although not a substantial decrease.


The key today will be to look at the amount of Supply and/or Demand during the regular trading session, as we have a more or less balanced market at the moment.

A break of the 2789.25 level could lead to a deeper sell off, if Demand does not show up. If the 2789.25 level holds and Demand shows up, we should see a continuation of the near term uptrend.

Data is updated in real time during the regular trading session of the NY Stock exchange and does NOT take into account any price indicators or mathematical formulas using price. We do however show the cumulative price change for the trading session and in some instances assess price movement’s relationship to Supply and Demand.

It is therefore fair to say that the readings and signals are independent from other popular price indicators and others shown on the chart. The readings are an independent assessment of the one and only measureable fundamental market mover: SUPPLY and DEMAND. It does not matter if price is influenced by a geopolitical event, seasonality, fundamental economic data releases or sentiment driven news, etc. It all reflects in Supply and Demand, the “footprints” of the “Big Boys” or “Smart Money”.

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