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Assessments / Blog


2018-08-10
ES #F More Supply


The daily chart of the S&P 500 mini futures contract above, shows our proprietary SUPPLY and DEMAND Dashboard and BXB (Bar by Bar) Signals using data from the NYSE.

 

Yesterday the ES rallied to a high of 2862.50, before Supply were dominating and closed down 1.50-points for the day at 2855.25. At the time of this writing the ES was trading at 2849.75. The Divergence and presence of Supply mentioned Yesterday is playing out. We had another Kamikaze Bar Yesterday. The lack of follow through to the upside, shows that the market is vulnerable at this stage. It is difficult to say how deep the pullback can be at this stage, but the 2741 (regression mean) to 2738 area seems to be an area where significant resistance can develop.

NYSE Daily Signals August the 9th    

Dashboard:

The Supply and Demand Reading (1st row) came in at -3 with Supply dominating the trading for the last 2 and a half hours of the trading session.

Supply and Demand Direction (3nd row) was to the downside (maroon down triangle), indicating downward direction, with no substantial strength.

Average Supply and Demand Volatility (4th row) was at 110% which is bearish. The change in average Volatility from the previous day was negative 15% (Up) as shown on the right of Sup/Dem Dashboard.

BXB Signals:

We had a balanced market signal on the signals board (1st row).

Daily Volatility direction (2nd row) was Up (blue up triangle). The change in daily Volatility from the previous day was positive 8% (Up) shown on the right of BXB Dashboard.

The overall NY Stock market traded Lower for the day (maroon down triangle in 3rd row).

42% of stocks (4th row) traded above there VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) compared to the previous day’s 52%, a negative sign for the markets.

Caution:

The Simplified Volume Oscillator is still in buying pressure territory. A pullback to the 2838.00 level is a possibility and a break of this level could lead to a deeper sell off, if Demand does not show up Today and selling pressure develops. If the 2791 level does not hold, the bulls will be in trouble.

Data is updated in real time during the regular trading session of the NY Stock exchange and does NOT take into account any price indicators or mathematical formulas using price. We do however show the cumulative price change for the trading session and in some instances assess price movement’s relationship to Supply and Demand.

It is therefore fair to say that the readings and signals are independent from other popular price indicators and others shown on the chart. The readings are an independent assessment of the one and only measureable fundamental market mover: SUPPLY and DEMAND. It does not matter if price is influenced by a geopolitical event, seasonality, fundamental economic data releases or sentiment driven news, etc. It all reflects in Supply and Demand, the “footprints” of the “Big Boys” or “Smart Money”.

Link to Facebook Group where these assessments are also posted regularly.

Click here for example of reversal trade taken in Feeder Cattle that can be found on this page.

RISK DISCLOSURE:

The information delivered here is for educational purposes only and is not intended to be a recommendation to purchase or sell any of the stocks, futures or other securities referenced. All references are for illustrative purposes only and are not considered endorsed or recommended for purchase or sale by MC Trading.

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