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Assessments / Blog


2018-08-16
ES #F Highest Supply since July the 7th


The daily chart of the S&P 500 mini futures contract above, shows our proprietary SUPPLY and DEMAND Dashboard and BXB (Bar by Bar) Signals using data from the NYSE.

Yesterday the market traded to a low of 2803.00, which look like a test of the Spring low (2791.00 of August the 2nd). The market closed at 2822.50 around the middle of the bar with a spring action. The market did not close below 2820.00 and Supply sentiment reached the Fear zone (Oversold) on the highest Supply reading since July the 7th. At the time of this writing the Simplified Volume Oscillator is moving into Buying pressure territory.

We believe that the market will move higher today IF the 2820.00 level holds, because of the Spring that occurred Yesterday. We expect resistance to occur at the 2843.00 to 2848.75 level. Ongoing Demand with a close above 2852.75 will get the Bulls on track again.

NYSE Daily Signals August the 15th   

Dashboard:

The Supply and Demand Reading (1st row) came in at -24.3 with Supply dominating the trading session.

Supply and Demand Direction (3nd row) was to the downside (red down triangle), indicating downward direction, with substantial strength.

Average Supply and Demand Volatility (4th row) was at 144% which is bearish. The change in average Volatility from the previous day was negative 14% (Down) as shown on the right of Sup/Dem Dashboard.

BXB Signals:

We had no signal on the signals board (1st row).

Daily Volatility direction (2nd row) was Down (maroon down triangle). The change in daily Volatility from the previous day was negative 215% (Down) shown on the right of BXB Dashboard.

The overall NY Stock market traded Higher for the day (blue up triangle in 3rd row).

58% of stocks (4th row) traded above there VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) compared to the previous day’s 51%, a positive sign for the markets.

Caution:

A pullback to the 2791.00 level still remains a possibility and a break of this level could lead to a deeper sell off, if Demand does not show up. If the 2791 level does not hold, the bulls will be in trouble.

Data is updated in real time during the regular trading session of the NY Stock exchange and does NOT take into account any price indicators or mathematical formulas using price. We do however show the cumulative price change for the trading session and in some instances assess price movement’s relationship to Supply and Demand.

It is therefore fair to say that the readings and signals are independent from other popular price indicators and others shown on the chart. The readings are an independent assessment of the one and only measureable fundamental market mover: SUPPLY and DEMAND. It does not matter if price is influenced by a geopolitical event, seasonality, fundamental economic data releases or sentiment driven news, etc. It all reflects in Supply and Demand, the “footprints” of the “Big Boys” or “Smart Money”.

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Click here for example of reversal trade taken in Feeder Cattle that can be found on this page.


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