Assessments / Blog

ES #F Supply gained the upper hand on high Volatility

The daily chart of the S&P 500 mini futures contract above, shows our proprietary SUPPLY and DEMAND Dashboard and BXB (Bar by Bar) Signals using data from the NYSE.

Yesterday price moved down 4.25-points to close at 2874.75, just below the 2877.50 level. The low came is at 2865, above the 2863.75 level. Demand dominated the first part of the trading session, but Supply gained the upper hand later in the session. Five of the last six sessions since the high on August the 29th, closed in the negative.

Volatility was high and the Simplified Volume Oscillator is still in Selling pressure territory. If price stay above 2863.75 and Demand shows up on Monday, the near term downtrend could stall, with the possible resumption of the longer term uptrend. A close below 2863.75 can lead to more weakness into the 2846.25 area which should offer support.

Daily Signals September the 7th:

The Dashboard readings and signals except for the % Stocks above their VWAP, were all bearish


On August the 26th we placed a link to an article that warned of a possible bigger pullback in the Stock market for the first time, and that scenario seems to be playing out, however it is difficult to tell how deep it will go. If the 2863.75 level is not broken the near term trend should turn Bullish again.

If Supply drives the market below the 2863.75 level, a sell off to 2846.25 is a possibility.

Our longer term outlook remains Bullish, however our proprietary target projection system shows that, if the longer term uptrend is broken a sell-off to the 2772.50 level is a possibility before the end of the year.

Data is updated in real time during the regular trading session of the NY Stock exchange and does NOT take into account any price indicators or mathematical formulas using price. We do however show the cumulative price change for the trading session and in some instances assess price movement’s relationship to Supply and Demand.

It is therefore fair to say that the readings and signals are independent from other popular price indicators and others shown on the chart. The readings are an independent assessment of the one and only measureable fundamental market mover: SUPPLY and DEMAND. It does not matter if price is influenced by a geopolitical event, seasonality, fundamental economic data releases or sentiment driven news, etc. It all reflects in Supply and Demand, the “footprints” of the “Big Boys” or “Smart Money”.


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