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Assessments / Blog


2018-09-29
ES #F Supply dominating by a whisker


The daily chart of the S&P 500 mini futures contract above, shows our proprietary SUPPLY and DEMAND Dashboard and BXB (Bar by Bar) Signals using data from the NYSE.

The ES lost 1.00-point on Friday after Demand initially, which subsided late in the trading session, with Supply winning at the end of the session by a whisker. The Supply and Demand and price action was typical of what could be expected when approaching the end of a triangle pattern. Friday’s price range was again within the range of the day before (inside bar) and the high and low at 2925.50 and 2908.00 will be important levels to watch. A solid breakout above or below these levels will probably give a clue of the direction of the next move.

Arguments in favour of a move higher:

  1. Inability to break the low at 2907.50 for the last 3 trading days
  2. Higher closes the last two days
  3. The last down swing volume is still lower than the previous down swing volume

Arguments in favour of a move lower:

  1. Lower highs the last 3 trading days
  2. Average Volatility still above 100%
  3. Still in Selling pressure territory
  4. ES still relative weak compared to Dollar Index
  5. Inability of price to close above the Regression mean for 3 consecutive days

At the moment is seems there is more bearish indications, but not conclusively convincing.

Daily Signals September the 28th:

S & D Dashboard algorithm and Daily Signals turned bearish, except for average % > VWAP

These readings are an independent assessment of the one and only measureable fundamental market mover: SUPPLY and DEMAND. It does not matter if price is influenced by a geopolitical event, seasonality, fundamental economic data releases or sentiment driven news, etc. It all reflects in Supply and Demand, the “footprints” of the “Big Boys” or “Smart Money”.

Caution:

Watch for the 2925.50 or 2908.00 levels to be broken up or down. Average Volatility is still high (above 100%) and we are still in Selling pressure territory.

 

Link to Facebook Group where these assessments are also posted regularly.

Click here for example of reversal trade taken in Feeder Cattle that can be found on this page.

 

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