Assessments / Blog

ES #F Supply with lower Daily Volatility

The daily chart of the S&P 500 mini futures contract above, shows our proprietary SUPPLY and DEMAND Dashboard and BXB (Bar by Bar) Signals using data from the NYSE.

On Friday price traded to a high of 2915.50, but failed to stay above the 2914.50 (tipping point mentioned in our previous assessment). The low came in at 2873.25 before the ES recovered later to close down 12.75-points, 21.75-points above the low. This was a remarkable recovery and price closed in the top half of the candle, setting up a potential Spring formation.

 Divergences to the upside exists on the Simplified Volume Oscillator and on the Supply/Demand sentiment tool. A quick rally and bar close above 2914.50 should favour future Bullish activity.

We are still in Selling pressure territory and there is a possibility for more weakness, but due to the Divergences and relatively low wave volume of the current downswing in progress, it is not conclusively convincing that further weakness will follow. If the 2865.00 level is taken out the market could be in serious trouble.

Daily Signals October the 5th:

S & D Dashboard algorithm was Bearish, But Daily Signals turned Bullish


A bar close Monday above 2914.50 could give credibility to the potential Spring formation. Daily Volatility dropped by 78% and can be a Bullish indication if sustained. We are still in Selling pressure territory. If the 2865.00 level is taken out the market could be in serious trouble. Be warned that historically, October is the most Volatile month of the year!

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