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ES SETS UP MAJOR DOUBLE BOTTOM AHEAD OF THE FED
If the Fed holds true to their earlier promises of continued rate increases, we could see this 2530 level broken as price retreats from any relief rally and attempts to find lower support. If the Fed changes the context of their message and adopts a slower and more insightful rate policy, the markets are poised for one heck of a potential rally. The ES if down by a little more than 400 points (-13.75%) from the peak in September 2018.
We believe the markets have already priced in the expected Fed rate hike and we believe an additional rate hike could become a catalyst for a downside move towards 2300 if the 2530 level is breached. We would like to see the Fed pause, or even decrease rate levels by 25 bp, allowing the markets to parse through the credit/debt issues that have started to plague the global markets before it causes the markets to “turn turtle” and prompt a greater crisis event.
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