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Assessments / Blog


2019-01-03
ES #F Demand but no new swing high


The daily chart of the S&P 500 mini futures contract above shows our proprietary SUPPLY and DEMAND Dashboard and BXB (Bar by Bar) Signals using data from the NYSE.

In our last assessment we mentioned: “Our assessment is that a good possibility exists, for another move down early next week. If the 2474.75 level is taken out a move lower into the 2431.00 to 2390.50 area is possible”.  Monday was an up day with a small range and Yesterday price moved below the 2474.75 level to a low of 2452.25, before closing up 5.75-points at 2511.00. So far price did not close below 2474.75. Despite 5 trading days of net Demand, price could not take out the last swing high at 2523.00, even with Buying pressure developing?

Based on the above in our view the market still looks weak. The Put/Call ratio also recently (28th) reached the 1000 level, which normally signals a near term peak in the markets. Yesterday’s continuous buying after the open, driving price from a low of 2452.25 to a high of 2521.25 (a range of 69-points), looks more like “FOMO” (“Fear Off Missing Out” on a price reversal), than a near term sustainable reversal. At the time of this writing the ES was trading at 2471.50.

Resistance to the upside is identified at 2508.00, 2521.75, 2542.50 and 2583.00. So far price could not close higher than 2523.00.

Volatility has eased, but can pick up again.

End of the day Signals January the 2nd:

S & D Dashboard Algorithm is Bullish but the Daily Signals are mixed

These readings are an independent assessment of the one and only measureable fundamental market mover: SUPPLY and DEMAND. It does not matter if price is influenced by a geopolitical event, seasonality, fundamental economic data releases or sentiment driven news, etc. It all reflects in Supply and Demand, the “footprints” of the “Big Boys” or “Smart Money”.

Caution:

Mixed signals and lower Volatility. Volatility may suddenly increase again?

 

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Click here for example of reversal trade taken in Feeder Cattle that can be found on this page.

 

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WISHING EVERYONE A PROSPEROUS 2019!!

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The information delivered here is for educational purposes only and is not intended to be a recommendation to purchase or sell any of the stocks, futures or other securities referenced. All references are for illustrative purposes only and are not considered endorsed or recommended for purchase or sale by MC Trading.

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