Assessments / Blog

ES #F Supply Galore – Bull trap!

The daily chart of the S&P 500 mini futures contract above shows our proprietary SUPPLY and DEMAND Dashboard and BXB (Bar by Bar) Signals using data from the NYSE.

Yesterday we warned about some anomalies (Bearish volatility and weakened buying pressure on a big up move) and a possible Bull Trap! The ES closed lower on Friday by 55.00-points and closed at 2807.50 below the previous resistance of 2814.00. We cannot recall a Bull Trap reversal (Tom Williams called this price action a Hidden Up thrust), engulfing the previous six trading days!

Supply and Demand Dashboard is Bearish with the highest Supply reading since December the 24th, indicating Institutional selling.

The Transportation Indexes reached the lowest level since March the 8th.

The wide spread bar (59.50-points) with a poor close, engulfing the ranges the previous 6 days opened the door for more weakness to follow.

We expect resistance at 2797.50, and if broken the 2789.25 to 2777.00 level should offer resistance, however a bounce on Monday is possible before any further move down. If a larger Sell off develop next week, price can move to the lower 2700.00 levels.

Comparative Strength Watch list:

Comparative Strength of the Equities markets (in nearly all time frames - Daily to intraday) declined (pink), whilst the Bond markets increased (green), indicative of Smart money moving from the Equity markets to markets with less risks (Bonds). The $VIX strengthened and Transportation weakened.

End of the day Signals March the 22nd:

S & D Dashboard Algorithm turned Bearish with a reading indicative of Institutional selling

Daily Signals turned to the down side

These readings are an independent assessment of the one and only measureable fundamental market mover: SUPPLY and DEMAND. It does not matter if price is influenced by a geopolitical event, seasonality, fundamental economic data releases or sentiment driven news, etc. It all reflects in Supply and Demand, the “footprints” of the “Big Boys” or “Smart Money”.


A bounce to the upside is possible on Monday. Expect more volatility.

Link to Facebook Group where these assessments are also posted regularly.

Links to recent research post


The Russell 2000 ETF continues to deliver critical technical and longer-term price patterns for skilled technicians.  Combining the IWM chart with the Transportation Index, Oil, Gold, and others provide a very clear picture of what to expect in the immediate future.

Click on this link to read more....


Click on this link to see Free Research Posts!


The information delivered here is for educational purposes only and is not intended to be a recommendation to purchase or sell any of the stocks, futures or other securities referenced. All references are for illustrative purposes only and are not considered endorsed or recommended for purchase or sale by MC Trading.

Trading Forex, Stocks and Options, Futures and any Cryptocurrency, Commodity or ETF contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and no representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. MCTrading has taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the information contained herein and on this website, however MCTrading does not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or from an inability to access such information or any delay in or failure of the transmission or receipt of any instruction or notification in connection therewith.