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2019-03-26
TREASURY INVERSION AND POLITICAL FED CYCLES


With so much news hitting the wires regarding the Treasury Inversion level and the “potential pending recession”, we wanted to shed a little insight into this phenomenon and what we believe the most likely outcome to be going forward.  Our researchers, at Technical Traders Ltd., believe the Treasure inversion is a reactionary process to overly tight US Fed monetary policies, consumer demand factors and outside cycle forces.  There is very little correlation to inverted Treasury levels and causation factors other than the US Fed and global central banks.  We believe consumers and consumer sentiment also play a role in setting up the conditions that prompt yield inversion.  The one aspect we believe everyone fails to consider is the uncertainty that is associated with major US election cycles.

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