Assessments / Blog
PREPARE FOR UNKNOWN PRICE ACTION AS NEW HIGHS ARE REACHED
The ES and NQ are very close to breaking out to new all-time highs this week and possibly over the next few weeks. The NQ is very close to these new high levels already. Traders must not take this move for granted as increased volatility and a very real chance for a price correction become even greater once we break into “new high territory”.
This upside move has taken almost 5 months to climb back from the December 2018 lows. It has been a very dramatic rally to say the least. We’ve seen dozens of professional analysts suggest the markets would rotate lower all the way up this rally. It seems as though everyone wanted to be right that the market top in October 2018 was going to be the start of something big. We were one of the few analysts that called the market accurately. Our September 17, 2018 analysis called for almost every leg of this price swing over the past 7+ months. We stuck by our research while others were skeptical and doubting our research. We stuck to it because we believe in our work and modeling tools.
Now, our modeling tools are suggesting we could be setting up for a pretty big increase in volatility over the next 2~3 months with the potential for bigger price rotation into May/June 2019. As we are reading our modeling system results, the key elements are that price will achieve new all-time highs, the price will increase in volatility and Gold should begin an upside price move over the next 2~5+ weeks. The move in Gold suggests one of two things may happen, or both. The US Dollar may weaken or the US stock market may correct a bit based on some economic event or outside foreign economic event.
Either way, the move in Gold suggests that increased volatility is almost a sure thing over the next 60 to 90 days. The only reason Gold would rise is if there is some increased fear factor throughout the planet in regards to the protection of assets and fear of some unknown event. Therefore, if our analysis is correct and Gold does rise as we have indicated, then something is about to create a big increase in volatility.
The key to all of this is that the ES and NQ will move into NEW HIGH territory before this volatility increase begins to become apparent.
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