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2019-04-25
TRANSPORTATION SECTOR IS TESTING RESISTANCE


The DOW Transportation Index continues to test resistance near $10,050 as earnings drive the NQ well past historical all-time highs.  Our interest in the Transportation Index is because it acts as a fundamental indicator for the US and global economies in terms of future transportation/shipping expectations.  When the Transportation Index rises, it is a good sign that business and consumers have faith in the future economy and the continued demand for goods to be supplied to retailers and distribution centers.

The fact that the TRAN is back to near December 2018 highs means we have reached an expected economic expansion level that equals that level just before Christmas 2018.  A continued rally would push expectations even higher going into the Summer months.  With earnings hitting the market hard today driving a strong rally in almost all the major US stock indexes, we are surprised that the TRAN did not move a bit higher on the news.

Should the resistance level near $11,050 continue to operate as a ceiling for the TRAN, we’ll know soon enough as price should begin to move back below $11,000 and possibly attempt to retest $10,800.  A key Fibonacci trigger level currently rests near $10,800 that would indicate a potential for a new bearish trend if this level is broken.

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