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Assessments / Blog

ES #F Difficult up ward progress?

The daily chart above shows our newly developed SUPPLY and DEMAND Dashboard and Daily Signals.

All readings are purely based on Supply and Demand and Volume from internal data of the total market, and does NOT take into account any price indicators or mathematical formulas using price. We do however show the cumulative price change for the trading session and assess price movement on its own. It is therefore fair to say that the readings and signals are independent from other popular price indicators or those shown on the chart. The readings are an independent assessment of the one and only measureable fundamental market mover: SUPPLY and DEMAND.

The ES made 2 attempts to break higher Yesterday and after each attempt price came back down. The current up wave (in progress), has a much shallower angle than the previous 2 up waves with more volume and the lowest points move since December the 4th 2017. This illustrates a huge effort by the buyers to move price up, with little progress. Although price moved up 23 points Yesterday, we are not convinced that the next move will be higher as the Buyers failed to take out the important 2679.25 level as the situation regarding Syria eased a bit. It is possible that the reversal pattern we saw on April the 11th, can play out today?

Dashboard and Signals:

The Supply and Demand Reading (1st row) indicates that Demand only just dominated Yesterday with n low positive reading of 3 which indicates the buyers dominated but not by a big margin.

Supply and Demand direction (3nd row) was to the upside but not strong (Blue arrow), we need to see a lime coloured arrow for substantial strength.

Average Supply and Demand Volatility (4th row) is below 100% which is positive for the Stock Market. The change in Volatility from the previous day was positive (+20 – right hand 2nd Signals dashboard) for the day, and it was positive (+6 - right hand 1st dashboard) on the average reading, showing a bias to the up side.

On the signals boards there is no signal (1st row).

Daily Volatility direction (2nd row) was up (blue triangle).

The NY Stock market traded lower (red triangle in 3rd row).

42% of stocks (4th row) traded above there VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) compared to Yesterday’s 47%.

In short we saw difficulty to progress upward Yesterday (can possibly attributed to the uncertainty at the moment), but our advice will be to be careful when taking long positions at this time.

A break above 2679.25 can get the bull market on track again. A break below 2584.50 can lead to more weakness. Our bias is to the short side today.


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