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Assessments / Blog


2018-10-20
ES #F Demand on Decline, high Volatility


The daily chart of the S&P 500 mini futures contract above shows our proprietary SUPPLY and DEMAND Dashboard and BXB (Bar by Bar) Signals using data from the NYSE.

Yesterday Demand dominated by a whisker at the end, with price closing down 4.75-points at 2767.50 below the critical support area (2772.50).

Anomalies:

  1. The current down swing (still in progress) has the lowest volume (1.95m contracts) since July the 2nd.
  2. The Supply and Demand Algorithm shows a Demand reading, whilst price has declined and this happened on increased average Volatility. Daily Volatility has decreased. The last time we saw this anomaly was on September the 21st when price reached an all-time high, with the only difference that daily signals were bearish then and average Volatility was much lower (below 100).

Volatility is still very high and we are in selling pressure territory. A break of 2756.50 to the down side will lead to more weakness. Overhead resistance exists at 2771.00 and 2829.75.

We believe the next week ahead will be very important and give more clarity as to the next substantial move, so caution will be in order.

If any substantial move lower occurs, resistance identified to the down side comes in at 2657.00, 2625.00 and 2567.25.

Daily Signals October the 19th:

S & D Dashboard Algorithm is Mixed and Daily Signals are Bullish with a balanced market warning

Anomaly: Demand on decline, with very high Volatility (Bearish?)

Caution:

Another move down is a possibility. Friday’s chart shows some anomalies, so extra caution would be in order. The February low at 2529.00 would be the line in the sand if the market moves substantially lower.

 

 

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