Assessments / Blog

ES #F Supply and high Volatility

The daily chart of the S&P 500 mini futures contract above, shows our proprietary SUPPLY and DEMAND Dashboard and BXB (Bar by Bar) Signals using data from the NYSE.

Yesterday price moved 10-points down to close at 2878.25, just above the 2877.50 level on strong Supply. Once again price closed well of the low at 2868.00 Yesterday. Four of the five sessions since the high on August the 29th, closed in the negative. The DOW did not close in the negative Yesterday, but the NASDAQ also closed in the negative.

Volatility was high and the Simplified Volume Oscillator is still in Selling pressure territory. If price stay above 2877.50 and more Demand shows up today, the near term downtrend could stall. A close below 2863.75 can lead to more weakness into the 2846.25 area which should offer support.

Daily Signals September the 6th:   

The Dashboard readings and signals turned all bearish


In our view the 2877.50 level is key at this stage, and if Demand shows up today and this level holds the near term down trend could stall. If continued Supply enters the market and the 2863.75 level is broken, a sell off to 2846.25 is a possibility.

On August the 26th we warned of a possible bigger pullback in the Stock market for the first time, and that scenario seems to be playing out, however it is difficult to tell how deep it will go.

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Data is updated in real time during the regular trading session of the NY Stock exchange and does NOT take into account any price indicators or mathematical formulas using price. We do however show the cumulative price change for the trading session and in some instances assess price movement’s relationship to Supply and Demand.

It is therefore fair to say that the readings and signals are independent from other popular price indicators and others shown on the chart. The readings are an independent assessment of the one and only measureable fundamental market mover: SUPPLY and DEMAND. It does not matter if price is influenced by a geopolitical event, seasonality, fundamental economic data releases or sentiment driven news, etc. It all reflects in Supply and Demand, the “footprints” of the “Big Boys” or “Smart Money”.


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