Assessments / Blog

ES #F Weaker Demand and Up thrust

The daily chart of the S&P 500 mini futures contract above, shows our proprietary SUPPLY and DEMAND Dashboard and BXB (Bar by Bar) Signals using data from the NYSE.


The mini S & P traded to a high of 2874.00 Yesterday, before pulling back in the later part of the trading session to close up 3.25-points at 2861.75 (below the 2863.75 level as mentioned previously) after an Up thrust. During trading outside normal trading hours the market traded to a low of 2846.25 and is trading at 2855.50 at the time of this writing. The anticipated pullback mentioned Yesterday occurred outside normal trading hours and it is difficult at this stage to make an assessment of how deep the pullback will go.

The fact that demand has weakened and Volatility increased, with somewhat mixes signals must alarm traders to be cautious at this stage. The Simplified Volume Oscillator is still in Buying pressure territory, so unless Selling pressure develops, we do not anticipate a move below 2832.00 at this stage. A bar close above 2863.75 will probably lead to an attempt to take out the January high, but the weakness (in Volatility) must first be addressed.

NYSE Daily Signals August the 21st   


The Supply and Demand Reading (1st row) came in at 1.3 with Demand dominating the trading session.

Supply and Demand Direction (3nd row) was to the Upside (blue up triangle), indicating upward direction, with No substantial strength.

Average Supply and Demand Volatility (4th row) was at 49% which is bullish. The change in average Volatility from the previous day was negative 13% (Weakness) as shown on the right of Sup/Dem Dashboard.

BXB Signals:

We had no signal on the signals board (1st row).

Daily Volatility direction (2nd row) was Down (maroon down triangle). The change in daily Volatility from the previous day was negative 13% (Weakness) shown on the right of BXB Dashboard.

The overall NY Stock market traded Lower for the day (maroon down triangle in 3rd row).

43% of stocks (4th row) traded above there VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) compared to the previous day’s 53%, a negative sign for the markets.


A move above 2863.75 will probably lead to an attempt to take out the January high, but the current weakness must subside first. A test of the Regression lines 1st Standard deviation at around 2832.00 is a possibility.

Data is updated in real time during the regular trading session of the NY Stock exchange and does NOT take into account any price indicators or mathematical formulas using price. We do however show the cumulative price change for the trading session and in some instances assess price movement’s relationship to Supply and Demand.

It is therefore fair to say that the readings and signals are independent from other popular price indicators and others shown on the chart. The readings are an independent assessment of the one and only measureable fundamental market mover: SUPPLY and DEMAND. It does not matter if price is influenced by a geopolitical event, seasonality, fundamental economic data releases or sentiment driven news, etc. It all reflects in Supply and Demand, the “footprints” of the “Big Boys” or “Smart Money”.


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